MyDD :: Gallup tracking poll starting to show bounce?

Gallup tracking poll starting to show bounce?

by thezzyzx, Wed Aug 27, 2008 at 01:05:00 PM EST

Bumped -- edited the title slightly - Todd

Tracking polls are weird. Obama gaining three points to retake the lead is good news, but the question is if it meant that a good McCain day dropped out or there was a good Obama day added. Fortunately, for a change Gallup gives the details:

"A strong night for Obama in Gallup's Tuesday tracking interviews, however, suggests that a convention bounce may be developing."

If you care about how the media will spin the polls, this could be very important. Why? Because obviously at least one of yesterday or the day before was an exceedingly good day for McCain. They will drop off after Obama's speech. If Obama has another good day in tomorrow's polling, that lead is going to widen as the bad days drop out. At the end of the convention, Obama is quite likely to have a lead out of the margin of error which means the post-convention news will be that the Democrats did unify.

It might just be a self fulfilling prophecy, but news about unification could cause it to snowball. It's scary now but I think those of us who obsess over the polls are going to be quite happy on Friday.

Tags: polling, general election (all tags)

Permalink :: 25 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Gallup tracking poll starting to show bounce (none / 0)

We need to have at least one to one parity between the number of poll diaries and the number of diaries explaining why polls this early, national tracking polls, badly conducted polls, well conducted polls too early, polls in States which are not in play, and polling in the age of refusers and cell-phones don't mean shit.

"But not me personally were those cheers for"

by QTG on Wed Aug 27, 2008 at 01:04:42 PM EST

Re: Gallup tracking poll starting to show bounce (2.00 / 1)

Yeah, that's what Ambinder said Plouffe said. Campaign in 50 states, work for 18 of them, so they don't give a crap about the national polls.

"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."

by vcalzone on Wed Aug 27, 2008 at 01:10:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Controling the narrative is important (none / 0)

It doesn't matter if the poll results are worth a hill of beans. The Democrats must control the narrative.

Eggheads can sit there and note how tracking polls this far out don't matter, and they're right.

But overestimating the intelligence of America has lost us election after election.

I attended PUMACon '08!!!

by iohs2008 on Wed Aug 27, 2008 at 02:16:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Controling the narrative is important (none / 0)

Actually, I think that President Clinton used the polls to get his message out to the electorate.

by 12 dogs and a blog on Wed Aug 27, 2008 at 02:34:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Exactly (none / 0)

And we all remember too well 2004 when the word was "no bounce!". There needs to be a bounce so the anti-unity meme can be laid to rest

I attended PUMACon '08!!!

by iohs2008 on Wed Aug 27, 2008 at 02:57:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Gallup tracking poll starting to show bounce (none / 0)

thanks! I look at the pools at least once an hour. Obsess much??? Anyway, I need these kinds of reminders (and more of last night, frankly) to stay afloat.

Liberal in So Cal

by lqbruin on Wed Aug 27, 2008 at 01:05:23 PM EST

Re: Gallup tracking poll starting to show bounce? (none / 0)

In regards to how the media covers things I thought MSNBC's coverage of the speech last night was quite interesting... and led me to believe there is a chance that the "democrats divided" meme might be dying its well deserved death as we speak.

Hey guys? You know we won right? You can stop the doooooomsaying now.

by JDF on Wed Aug 27, 2008 at 01:08:28 PM EST

Re: Gallup tracking poll starting to show bounce? (none / 0)

One more thing...
This polling did not take into account Senator Clinton's speech. She finished her speech when, around 11:00ish? That means the only polling that could have occured after the speech was finished would have been on the west coast, already in the bag for Obama. These numbers bode well for tomorrow. This is in response to Michelle Obama's.
Oh yeah, if the Big Dog himself hits it out of the park and the Attack Dog Biden brings it as he does so well, we will be sitting pretty. Okay, I gotta calm down and breathe.

Liberal in So Cal

by lqbruin on Wed Aug 27, 2008 at 01:15:08 PM EST

Re: Gallup tracking poll starting to show bounce? (none / 0)

Rather than showing Obama gaining three points to retake the lead, doesn't it actually show Obama gaining one point and McCain losing two points.

Well, a bounce is a bounce. Only 72 days of polling remain.

If you had everything, where would you put it?

by wasanyonehurt on Wed Aug 27, 2008 at 01:16:47 PM EST

Re: Gallup tracking poll starting to show bounce? (none / 0)

3 net points.

Wow I can't believe I got bumped to the front page like that :)

But in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope.

by thezzyzx on Wed Aug 27, 2008 at 01:21:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Gallup tracking poll starting to show bounce? (none / 0)

No, it's 3 points. And if you take each day as a snapshot, the spread for yesterday alone probably had to be something like 48 to 42 in order to have a 3 point average change. It's nothing to dance a jig over, but it's a little taste of good news.

by Drummond on Wed Aug 27, 2008 at 02:44:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

State Polls (2.00 / 2)

These national polls ... who knows where they are taken geographically and what do they respresent. Give me the state polling anyday. I just can't get worked up over the national standing, it is meaningless anyways.

by Monkei on Wed Aug 27, 2008 at 01:17:12 PM EST

Re: State Polls (none / 0)

So true. I gotta keep looking at that map on the left-hand-side. Today on Morning Joe, someone (I think it was that guy named "Willie") said that Axelrod is quietly confident. They ran the numbers campaign in the primary, they're still doing it now. More breathing, more deep breathing...

Liberal in So Cal

by lqbruin on Wed Aug 27, 2008 at 01:22:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Gallup tracking poll starting to show bounce? (none / 0)

Ya'll know that watching those polls is like watching a woman 10 months pregnant and trying to guess when she'll have the baby. Every little twitch will get you excited or drive ya' bonkers.

LOl good morning.

It would be great to have a tutorial on polls.

There are so many of them in politics and they all act like they've got the inside track. I always wonder how come they aren't putting this mind reading to good use like picking lottery numbers or horses races.

But they don't.

Sign me up for that poll tutorial, seems like a very good thing to understand.

Where do folks start?

by 12 dogs and a blog on Wed Aug 27, 2008 at 01:22:45 PM EST

Re: Gallup tracking poll starting to show bounce? (2.00 / 1)

The real story. Despite 6 weeks of unrelenting smears, Obama has GAINED 7% in Gallup's polling of likely voters.

(Fast forward to the end if you don't want to hear Maddow stick it to Buchanan and McBush for 5 minutes.)

"I don't know too much about Sarah Palin, but perhaps that's the good news." -- GOP Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison

by Obama44 on Wed Aug 27, 2008 at 01:22:50 PM EST

Re: Gallup tracking poll starting to show bounce? (2.00 / 1)

McCain seems to be worried... he's thinking about announcing on Thursday, not Friday, and it may even be Lieberman!

http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/08/27/ lieberman-still-a-possibility-for-mccain s-vp-choice/

That would be a real reach for him! Truly spitting in the face of the base...

It profits a PUMA nothing to give their soul for the whole world... but for McCain? --Sir Thomas More (if he were here now)

by LordMike on Wed Aug 27, 2008 at 01:26:57 PM EST

Please please PLEASE (2.00 / 1)

...let it be Lieberman! Talk about convention drama; there actually could be a floor fight if that happened.

But in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope.

by thezzyzx on Wed Aug 27, 2008 at 01:30:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Please please PLEASE (none / 0)

Please throw me into that Briar Patch that is Leiberman...
And let it be done tomorrow evening. It would be completely ignored!

Liberal in So Cal

by lqbruin on Wed Aug 27, 2008 at 01:39:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Please please PLEASE (none / 0)

And, if not Lieberman... Romney!

Stop H8

by mikeinsf on Wed Aug 27, 2008 at 03:04:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Gallup tracking poll starting to show bounce? (none / 0)

Okay, slap me please. I just went to the Fox link. Anyway, I found that McCain may nominate former OK gov Frank Keating. That would even be better. There would be NO electoral collge gain, and more interestingly, we would need to produce only one commercial highlighting the Keating Five scandal, and he would become a millstone around McSame. It doesn't matter that this Keating had nothing to do with it, the public would hear the name Keating and the bad info surrounding the name, and BAM, depressed turnout for the other side. This would also cause all of the right-wingers and their media to spend countless hours trying to educate the masses about the misconception that would be taking hold. All the while dredging up that scandal, which would open up some of the public's eyes as to McSame's connection with it.

Liberal in So Cal

by lqbruin on Wed Aug 27, 2008 at 01:47:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Gallup tracking poll starting to show bounce? (none / 0)

The poll have been wrong since day one.

"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!

by Al Rodgers on Wed Aug 27, 2008 at 01:28:39 PM EST

Re: Gallup tracking poll starting to show bounce? (none / 0)

Not to be a pain, but Rasmussen continued to show slight slippage today, although the "anti-bounce" appears to have subsided.

by rfahey22 on Wed Aug 27, 2008 at 01:30:17 PM EST

Buyer's remorse (2.00 / 1)

Even if it's a good purchase, many people will feel buyer's remorse. One option out of many is solidified, all of the possibilities are now forever foreclosed. It's sobering. A parade of the talented Democrats who will not be president, including Hillary, can't help but sadden a bit. I wouldn't be surprised if there is a "slow rise" or even a dip before a rise, because of this phenomenal. It's why I think any "bounce" is totally illusory, and the absence of a bounce is no big deal.

by milton333 on Wed Aug 27, 2008 at 01:41:38 PM EST

Re: Buyer's remorse (none / 0)

Good point...don't get too high or too low. Very John Wooden and Phil Jackson of you. But come on, dude. GET ON THE BUS!

Liberal in So Cal

by lqbruin on Wed Aug 27, 2008 at 01:50:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Gallup tracking poll starting to show bounce? (none / 0)

"It's scary now but I think those of us who obsess over the polls are going to be quite happy on Friday."
Don't speak to early. I hope thats the case.

by nzubechukwu on Wed Aug 27, 2008 at 01:53:48 PM EST

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